The financial market increased the inflation forecast for this year. According to the projection of the Focus Bulletin, released today (16), in Brasília, by the Central Bank, the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should close the year at 5.39%. A week ago, the market calculated that inflation this year would be 5.36%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 5.17%. The percentage is above the inflation target for this year, defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), which is 3.25%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points (pp), up or down. Thus, the target will be considered formally met if it fluctuates between 1.75% and 4.75%. To reach the inflation target, the Central Bank uses the basic interest rate, the Selic, as its main instrument, set at 13.75% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The rate is at its highest level since January 2017, when it was also at that level. The next Copom meeting is scheduled for January 31st and February 1st of this year. For the financial market, the expectation is that the Selic will be maintained at the same 13.75% per year in this first meeting of 2023. Released weekly, the Focus Bulletin brings together the projection of more than 100 market institutions for the main economic indicators in the country . For 2024, the market maintained last week’s inflation projection: 3.70%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was that the index would close next year at 3.50%. As for 2025, the projection is that the IPCA – the country’s official inflation – will stay at 3.50%. GDP The increase in the inflation forecast was accompanied by a reduction in the expected growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, which stood at 0.77%, compared to 0.78% last week. In this week’s projection, Focus maintained the GDP forecast for 2024, recorded seven days ago. The new projection is 1.50%. For 2025, the estimate is that the Brazilian economy will grow 1.90%. Interest and exchange rate The market also projected an increase in the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2023. In the projection released this Monday, the Selic should remain at 12.50%, compared to 12.25% last week . For the end of 2024, the market estimate for the Selic remained stable, remaining at 9.25%. For 2025, the forecast is that the Selic will remain at 8.25%. As for the exchange rate, market expectations for the dollar exchange rate in 2023 were R$5.28, the same as last week. For the years 2024 and 2025, the market forecast is that the US currency will remain at R$ 5.30, the same value as the previous week.
Agência Brasil
Folha Nobre - Desde 2013 - ©