High interest rates retracted economy in the 4th quarter of 2022

The high levels of interest rates and family debt slowed down the economy in 2022 and caused a 0.2% retraction in the Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter, assessed today (15) the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, in the GDP Monitor/FGV survey. The FGV estimate is that the annual result for 2022 showed growth of 2.9% in the economy. The foundation considers the variation a good result, despite being marked by the slowdown throughout the year. The research coordinator, Juliana Trece, points out that the service sector contributed with more than 80% of the economy’s performance last year, with emphasis on sectors such as accommodation, food, private health, private education, services provided to families and the companies. “This activity, which was one of those that had shown the greatest losses due to the need for social distancing during the pandemic, boosted the 2022 GDP thanks to the normalization of social activities and the fiscal stimuli given to the economy”, said the economist. The GDP for the months of October, November and December fell by 0.2% in relation to July, August and September, concluding the path of deceleration of the economy throughout the year. Even so, the result for the 4th quarter of 2022 was 1.9% above the same period of 2021. In December, the FGV survey shows that the economy grew 0.2% compared to November; and 1.4%, over December of last year. Consumption and investments The consumption of Brazilian families reached the highest value since the beginning of the historical series and increased by 4% in 2022, according to the survey. Despite this, consumption of durable goods, such as vehicles and large appliances, dropped. “Because they are made up of higher value-added goods, high interest rates, to a certain extent, inhibit the consumption of these types of goods”, evaluates the FGV. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a parameter for investments, grew by 1.1%, despite the drop in spending on machinery and equipment. According to the survey, construction contributed positively to this indicator. With regard to foreign trade, there was growth in both exports (6%) and imports (0.9%) throughout 2022. Productivity in the economy, which has been on a downward path since 2014, reached in 2022 a of the lowest values ​​of the historical series, below the year of 2008.

Agência Brasil