Climate-related events could lead from 800,000 to 3 million Brazilians to extreme poverty as of 2030. The data are from the Report on Climate and Development for Brazil (CCDR), released this Thursday (4) by the World Bank. According to the study – which evaluates policies and options for the country to meet its climate and development goals – droughts, floods and floods in cities cause losses of BRL 13 billion (0.1% of GDP in 2022) a year. For Stephane Hallegate, a consultant on Climate Change at the World Bank and co-author of the report, the country has great inequalities and the poor are already more exposed to the risk of disasters and climate change. The scenario can, however, be reversed with investment. “Investing in people and infrastructure in less developed areas is important to make this low-income population more resilient. This will help them out of poverty and contribute to the country’s economic growth,” she says. The starting point of the CCDR is the objectives established by the country itself in the Paris Agreement and in the editions of the Conference of the Parties (COPs). To achieve these goals, the report recommends actions on four fronts: structural reforms and productivity-boosting measures, comprehensive economic policies for resilient and low-carbon growth, sectoral policies and investment packages, and actions to secure investment financing. needed. With this, it is believed that Brazil can achieve green development and end illegal deforestation by 2028, in addition to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50% by 2030, in addition to zeroing net emissions by 2050 Poverty X inclusive growth Although Brazil has drastically reduced the share of people living in extreme poverty over the last three decades, the number of individuals in this condition increased in 2015 and 2016, reaching 5.8% of the population in 2021. According to the report, the increase in extreme poverty could range from 0.4% to 1.3% by 2030, depending on the chosen development model. Weather-related reductions in agricultural yields, extreme weather events, changes in food prices, health impacts and reduced labor productivity due to heat are some of the factors that can lead to this scenario. The CCDR suggests, however, several measures for Brazil to fulfill its commitment to zero illegal deforestation by 2028 without harming development. Among the measures is support for sustainable economic activities based on soil and forests. For the authors of the study, the expansion of protected areas, including indigenous territories, would improve forest governance, creating opportunities for payments for caring for nature, such as ecotourism, sustainable harvesting of non-timber forest products and agroforestry systems. The creation of Legal Forest Reserves (RFLs), as required by the Forest Code, would also offer opportunities for income generation and inclusive growth. Landslide on Morro da Oficina, in Petrópolis, in February 2022 left more than 230 dead – Tomaz Silva/Agência Brasil Competitiveness and energy Climate change is already altering temperature patterns and rainfall in Brazil, resulting in less water availability and prolonged droughts. According to the CCDR, these problems will get worse over time and can have serious consequences for agriculture, water supply in cities, transport infrastructure and hydroelectric power generation, affecting economic competitiveness. The impact projected by the study of a possible turning point in the Amazon on the Brazilian GDP by 2050 would be approximately R$ 920 billion. The inflection point is a kind of collapse and would happen when the number of trees is no longer sufficient to generate the moisture needed to sustain the forest. Although Brazil is one of the ten largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world, the emissions profile differs from that of other countries. Between 2000 and 2020, 76% of the country’s emissions came from land-use change, including deforestation and agriculture, compared to 18% for global emissions. On the other hand, almost half of Brazil’s energy supply, including more than 80% of its electricity, comes from renewable sources, compared with world averages of around 15% to 27%. Still according to the CCDR, the prevalence of renewable energy and the Brazilian potential for the production of ecological goods and services put the country at a competitive advantage in the supply of products necessary for decarbonization (removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere), including green minerals, green hydrogen and environmentally friendly manufactured products. Prioritizing efforts to contain deforestation would allow Brazil not only to preserve its ecosystems, but to gradually decarbonize other productive sectors. “The sustainable use of natural resources is becoming a requirement for competitiveness in international markets. First, because green technologies are gaining ground and this affects demand. For example, electric vehicles are growing rapidly. Brazil has demonstrated the ability to innovate and lead in new technologies and can benefit from it” concludes Hallegate.
Agência Brasil
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