In the next five years, global temperatures are expected to beat current records because of greenhouse gases and the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon. The alert is from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In a report released this Wednesday (17), the United Nations agency states that there is a 98% chance that one, among the next five years, will be the hottest since the beginning of records of global temperatures. Known as the Annual Global Update for the Climate Decadal, the report is produced by the UN agency in partnership with UK experts. WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the report does not mean that humanity will be permanently exceeding the 1.5°C mark specified in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, but rather an alarm that this limit will be broken with greater frequency in the future. The document points to a 66% probability that the average annual temperature near the global surface between 2023 and 2027 will exceed pre-industrial levels of 1.5°C for at least one year. Another factor is that the El Niño phenomenon, which should evolve in the coming months, appears in a scenario of combination of climate change induced by human beings that will take global temperatures to unknown levels. World needs to be prepared The report also points to Arctic warming that could be three times higher than the global average. Taalas believes that this framework could have impacts on health, food security, management of water sources and the environment. And for that reason alone, the world needs to be prepared. In 2022, the average global temperature was 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over most of the past three years has temporarily controlled a long-term warming trend. Less rain in the Amazon But La Niña ended in March. And El Niño generally leads to a rise in global temperatures in the year following its formation, and this count closes in 2024. Compared to the period 1991-2020, the temperature anomaly caused by Arctic warming is expected to be more three times larger. This warming is being disproportionately higher. Predicted rainfall patterns for May to September 2023 to 2027 compared to 1991-2020 suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia. And a shortening of the rainy season for the Amazon and parts of Australia. Paris Agreement In addition to rising global temperatures, man-made greenhouse gas production is leading to further warming and acidification of the oceans. Another consequence is melting glaciers and sea ice, as well as rising sea levels and more extreme temperatures. The Paris Agreement establishes long-term goals that can direct all countries to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions by limiting the temperature increase in this century to 2°C to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and losses and years that will occur from this picture. The new WMO report is being released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress, scheduled for May 22-June 2, which will discuss how to strengthen weather and weather services. Among the priorities are early warning systems to protect people from natural disasters.
Agência Brasil
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