Human action accumulated since the Industrial Revolution, in the 18th and 19th centuries, has already produced significant changes in the global climate, and adapting homes and cities to this reality is a necessity that needs urgent answers, say environmentalists and researchers consulted by Agência Brasil. Extreme events, such as the rains that left more than 50 victims on the north coast of São Paulo during Carnival, tend to be more frequent, and public authorities need to act to reduce the vulnerability of populations to these scenarios, they point out. In recent years, recurrent warnings by researchers from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations (UN) have indicated that human influence has led the planet to the fastest warming trajectory in 2,000 years and has already produced an average temperature that exceeds the pre-industrial period by more than 1 degree Celsius (°C). Experts estimate that the global temperature could rise by 1.8°C by 2100, even if all the targets established in 2015 by the Paris Agreement, signed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If these targets are not met, devastating scenarios for biodiversity could materialize with warming of up to 3°C. But, in addition to the extinction of species and the imbalance of ecosystems, the researchers warn that warming will make episodes such as storms, floods, droughts and waves of cold and heat more frequent. In Brazil, such problems will hit unequal cities with infrastructure problems, an electricity generation system dependent on the rainfall regime and an economy that has agriculture as a weight sector. Extreme events São Sebastião (SP), 02/22/2023, Houses destroyed in landslides in Barra do Sahy after storms on the north coast of São Paulo. – Rovena Rosa/Agência Brasil Researcher on the subject and president of the Talanoa Institute, Natalie Unterstell is categorical in warning that “there are no natural catastrophes in Brazilian cities”. The researcher’s evaluation may cause strangeness in the face of recurring events with dozens and even hundreds of victims, but she clarifies that none of this is natural. There’s no naturalness about disasters when we’re talking about an urban environment,” she says. “Climate change does play a role in exacerbating these risks and requires greater preparedness. Still, there may be residual damage. But what determines whether there will be a tragedy or not is how we humans prepare for it.” The storm that hit the cities of São Paulo last week was the most intense ever recorded by meteorological services in Brazil, with an accumulated 682 millimeters (mm) in 24 hours, according to the National Center for Disaster Monitoring Prediction (Cemaden). This is equivalent to saying that, on average, 682 liters of rainwater fell in each square meter of the area most affected by the storm — more than half the volume of a thousand-liter water tank in each square meter in the city of Bertioga, where the brand was registered.In São Sebastião, a neighboring municipality, the rainfall index reached 626 mm in 24 hours. The previous record for the most intense storm had been registered just a year ago, when the city of Petrópolis, in Rio de Janeiro, was flooded by 531 millimeters of rain in 24 hours. from the Office, on of 90 people died. Natalie Unterstell recalls that storms are already the main reason for decrees of calamity or state of emergency in Brazilian municipalities and tend to become more frequent, especially in the Southeast and South of the country. “All climate change scenarios point to increased rainfall, especially in summer, beyond what had been billed to build our cities and our homes. These storms will play a preponderant role in these regions in the coming decades”, she says. The researcher points out that there is no longer the possibility of a climate scenario that will not require adaptation in the coming years. What is at stake is how drastic the adaptation will need to be. “Will it be at 1.5°C, 2°C, or 3°C? The more emissions, the more risks and the more adaptation needs.” “We have very different threats projected for each region of the country. What the climate change models tell us is that, in general, the North and Northeast regions will experience greater drying, with less rain and drier days. These are regions in which that river flows are compromised by this. In the South and Southeast, it is the opposite. The models project an increase in the volume of rainfall for the coming decades”, he explains. “The Midwest stands out as the region that should experience the greatest increase in temperature. Depending on the degree of global warming, reaching 3°C in the average global temperature, the region will not raise only 3°C, but a lot more than that, and it’s already a very hot region.” The executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, Marcio Astrini, points out that there has been a succession of extreme events in recent years, including storms in Recife, Bahia and the north of Minas Gerais. According to Astrini, the proof that a specific event is related to climate change is a conclusion that is not always clear, but the accumulation of events like these is already considered a consequence of climate change by specialists. “We are seeing this continuously in Brazil and around the world as well. Last year, Pakistan had a third of the country completely submerged by record flooding. In the same period, between Ethiopia and Kenya, there was record drought. So , we are already seeing an extreme climate behavior that, in Brazil, is bringing some moments of drought, but a lot of rain”, he says. “Storms cause this immediate tragedy, with landslides that have a much more measurable cost in lives, but the issue of drought in Brazil has an equally worrying impact. Brazil is a country very dependent on rains, mainly due to the generation of electricity. We may have water, energy and agriculture crises.” Environmental racism São Sebastião (SP), 02/22/2023, Houses destroyed in landslides in Barra do Sahy after storms on the north coast of São Paulo. – Rovena Rosa/Agência Brasil The researchers’ prediction is that this problem on a global scale will have as its main victims those who already accumulate other social vulnerabilities, such as less access to health, safe housing, formal jobs and urban infrastructure. On the other hand, they are the people who have contributed the least to global warming, say experts. “The most exposed populations are the poorest. It is the black population, it is the peripheral population, it is the population that suffers most from social inequality and racism. And it is women, mainly. Climate change is a factory for generating poverty and social inequality”, points out Astrini. “And the most cruel thing about all of this is that these people are the ones who contribute the least to the problem. Those who contribute the most to the problem are those who can leave Barra do Sahy by helicopter [SP]. Those who pollute the planet are the richest people, and these people will adapt more easily. They lose the house, collect insurance and buy a beach house elsewhere. And people who consume less and have a smaller carbon footprint are left with most of the bill.” Natalie Unterstell adds that children and the elderly are also among vulnerable groups and agrees that lower income social classes will be more affected by having less resources to protect themselves and react to extreme weather events. In this context, racial inequality is also a factor to be considered, says the researcher. “It is important to remember something that is called environmental racism in the literature, which is very present in our reality. Poor people, in general, are black, brown and indigenous in urban centers, and these populations are hit hard because they live in risky areas. And this becomes even more complicated for children and the elderly, because they have more difficulty running away, swimming”, recalls the researcher. “When thinking about managing this risk, it is necessary to think about these social groups.” Climatic Adaptation Morro da Oficina, in Petrópolis, the place hardest hit by the flood a month ago – Tomaz Silva/Arquivo Agência Brasil Marcos Freitas, professor at the Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering – at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), recalls that, in 1994, the defense of his doctoral thesis, in France, was marked by a heated discussion lasting more than three hours with a researcher who did not believe in climate change: “It was a lot of work, but, in the end, I was approved. 30 years after my doctoral thesis, I have no doubt that what is happening now is the effect of that 1.1°C more than we already are in relation to the average of 1850 to 1900. For every 1° C more, we have 7% more evaporation in the hydrological cycle, and this causes more intense rainfall and extreme events”, says the geographer, who coordinates the International Virtual Institute of Global Changes at Coppe/UFRJ. Professor of two disciplines who discuss climate change and climate vulnerability at the UFRJ postgraduate course, Freitas says that engineering needs to work harder on the subject to come up with inventive solutions and that the public power act without delay to reduce risks and protect the population from a scenario that tends to get worse. “It is important that public policies that have to deal with several things, such as serious problems of income distribution, job generation, housing supply and health, begin to have an adaptation bias to the change that of the climate”, he argues. Among the priorities, Freitas underscores the number of approximately 10 million people living in risk areas, according to an estimate by the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts on Natural Disasters (Cemaden) based on data from the 2010 Census. Freitas calculates that the investment to guarantee safe housing for this population can be in the range of tens of billions of reais. “If we consider five people per household, there are 2 million households. If the cost of each household is BRL 200,000, we are talking about BRL 50 billion. It may seem like a lot, but if we divide it into 5 years, it is BRL 10 billion per year. And, if it is in 10 years, it will be R$ 5 billion per year. This is very little compared to the result that would generate jobs and income in Brazil and improve the quality of life of cities and people “, he states. “This program could be linked to an important multilateral agency, such as the World Bank, so as not to have governance problems and to be able to move from one government to another regardless of elections.” For the geographer, who specializes in environmental economics, the federal government will need to make resources available and play a leading role and international interaction to facilitate the process. Each in its own way, the entities of the federation will need to contribute to climate adaptation. “The states have a lot of responsibility and can help. States like Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Espírito Santo have many resources from oil royalties and need to worry about the energy transition to renewable sources. resources use part of them in adapting to vulnerabilities”, says the professor. “It is the municipalities that define the policies for occupying and using the land, mainly urban. It is also important that they have well-made maps of risk areas and organized alert systems.” Márcio Astrini defends carrying out an in-depth study in each risk area to assess where engineering solutions can prevent new disasters and where the population will need to be removed to safe places, with guaranteed employment and social ties. “Within these engineering solutions, there are immediate measures, such as training the municipalities, training civil defenses, hiring equipment, installing sirens. There is a lot that can be done before reaching heavier works or removals.” Astrini says that, at the federal level, the government will need to create budget lines for this adaptation. “Mass disasters are a new reality, in which governments need to invent new ways of dealing, especially new budgetary ways.”
Agência Brasil
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