Trade ends semester with worst confidence level in 2 years

The Commerce Entrepreneur Confidence Index (Icec) reached 106.4 points in June, a monthly decrease of 0.6%, seasonally adjusted. The index, calculated monthly by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), was released this Wednesday (28). Retailers’ optimism fell for the second consecutive time, taking Icec to the lowest level since June 2021. The indicator maintains the downward trend recorded in the last two months. In the annual comparison, the reduction in confidence fell 13.1%, the biggest retraction in this comparison since April 2021, when the drop was 20.7%. According to the CNC, the highlight of the month was the unfavorable perception of the current situation. Three months ago, the current conditions index entered the negative zone (below 100 points), with intense drops in retailers’ assessment of the performance of the economy and trade. The majority of traders, 61.2%, point out that trade sales have worsened. The proportion is also the highest since June 2021. “The result of the June Icec shows that commerce entrepreneurs are cautious with the country’s current economic situation, which directly affects household consumption”, said, in a note, the president of the CNC, José Roberto Tadros. According to him, the drop in confidence is a warning sign, as the sector has been suffering from high interest rates and the difficulties that consumers have in accessing credit and paying off debts. Consumption intention Although consumers indicate a greater purchase intention, as the Family Consumption Intention (ICF) survey, also carried out by CNC, has pointed out, the high level of indebtedness and default and expensive and restricted credit limit consumption capacity . “Consumer optimism, with greater job security and improved disposable income due to lower inflation, has not translated into a general and sustained rise in retail sales. This has been reflected in the reduction of retailer confidence”, said, in a note, Izis Ferreira, CNC economist responsible for the survey. Another index that demonstrates the pessimism of entrepreneurs is that of expectations for the performance of commerce, which fell 10.1% between June 2022 and 2023. the most favorable dynamics of inflation in recent months. The permanence of high interest rates has led merchants to redefine estimates for this year’s sales”, explained the economist.

Agência Brasil